Protesters in the streets of Iran demonstrating against a massive hike in gas prices by the government, November 2019. This gap affords a lifeline that will allow the Iranian economy to keep its head above water, even if sanctions aren’t lifted anytime soon. The economic situation in Iran is indeed awful, but they have learned to live with the sanctions, and have even increased oil production from a record-low 300,000-400,000 barrels per day in the middle of last year to around one million per day today. The Iranians, he argued, are stronger and tougher than we think. In the past, Zimmt predicted that this wouldn’t happen. In the West, officials hoped Iran would be brought to its knees that internal processes within the country, maybe even a regime change, would have occurred. This “something” is the removal of sanctions. Their fundamental position hasn’t changed, and they won’t come back for nothing or give up anything until the Americans do something substantial.” “They are playing hard to get, even more than expected. Tehran’s main focus right now, said Zimmt, is the nuclear issue. “Not over this, not at this juncture, and not with this administration in Washington.” An ongoing fight for survival They are managing both campaigns simultaneously,” he said.Īt the same time, Raz Zimmt, a research fellow at the INSS specializing in Iran, says the Iranians have no interest in sparking a broad conflict with Israel at the moment. Orion believes Iran is orchestrating this campaign separate from its nuclear project.
The Iranians essentially wanted to tell us, ‘Don’t mess with us.'” “It was a signal that Israel also has a soft underbelly, and can be hit anywhere in the world. (res.) Assaf Orion, the former head of the Strategic Division in the Planning Directorate of the IDF General Staff and now a senior research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies. “We are in a new event, the first of its kind,” said IDF Brig. As stated, the experts are divided over whether the attack was an isolated incident or part of a new and broader campaign. This is crucial in terms of the next round, if and when it erupts. “ noted with satisfaction this week that Israel in its comfort zone, not where it hurts them.”ĭocumentation of alleged Israeli airstrikes near Damascus on Feb. “What happens in Syria stays in Syria,” as one senior Israeli official said. The Iranians have become adept at absorbing the attacks in Syria, and they won’t start a world war over them. It’s doubtful they learned the lesson this time either. Those who hoped Iran would get the message, however, were quickly disillusioned: Iran only stepped up its belligerent cyberattacks on Israel.
The attack only resulted in minor damage, but it was claimed that Israel’s response was relatively strong, according to foreign reports partially paralyzing Iran’s main port, Bandar Abbas, for several weeks. One year ago, Iran launched a cyberattack on Israel’s water infrastructure. More than a few officials, within the IDF, too, believe Israel could have shown restraint and leveraged the incident from a diplomatic perspective to tarnish Iran and that if it chose to retaliate regardless, the response should have been far more forceful. Photo by Hadas Parush/Flash90.Īccording to the reports, although Kochavi’s line was adopted-Iranian targets were attacked in Syria, Israel’s most convenient arena in which to retaliate-it wasn’t necessarily the correct call at this juncture. Aviv Kochavi during an event honoring outstanding IDF reservists, at the President’s Residence in Jerusalem on July 1, 2019. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) speaks with IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Aviv Kochavi, called for a measured response unlikely to trigger a borderless conflagration in which Israel has no interest for the time being. The moderate line, espoused by Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Lt. The hawkish line, spearheaded by Mossad chief Yossi Cohen, called for a harsh response. In the past, Tehran (and its proxies) was far less picky, but it appears the Iranians wanted to walk a fine line: Respond, but without sparking an escalation that could jeopardize its vital interests.Ī heated debate arose in Israel over the appropriate response, portions of which reached the press. The intention was to damage it but not kill anyone on board. Had they wanted to, they would have succeeded. There’s no question the Iranians didn’t want to sink the ship. Credit: Sayyed Shahab-o-Din Vajedi via Wikimedia Commons. One of the various types of fast-attack craft used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, seen here taking part in maneuvers in the general area of the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf, in February 2015.
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